Tag Archives: Inflation

Asian Development Outlook Forecast Skill

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International Monetary Fund are used as a benchmark against which to derive a comparative measure of the accuracy of ADO forecasts, or skill.

ADO is found to be ‘more skillful’ than WEO in estimating both current-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index (CPI) inflation of Asian economies. WEO may have an edge over ADO when it comes to year-ahead GDP forecasts, while ADO’s inflation forecasts tend to be more accurate. By and large, and notwithstanding much heterogeneity across economies and years, both sets of forecasts display a high degree of inaccuracy during the crisis years.

Download the full book at http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2014/ewp-386.pdf

CARE Research : Analysis of RBI Credit policy, September 2013

In a surprise move, the RBI increased the repo rate by 25 bps and also eased the liquidity tightening measures invoked earlier in July. While the immediate impact will be straightening of the yield curve, it also signals that inflation targeting will remain a major objective of RBI.

While policy will be shaped by the inflation number as well as the Fed actions, we are still hopeful of a cut in interest rates of 25 bps in Q4 if inflation is under control (good harvest expected this time) and clarity obtained on Fed’s tapering programme.

Click below for the detailed analysis on the RBI Credit Policy.

Mid quarter Monetary Policy Review – September 2013