Asset quality deterioration, shortage of capital, and slowing credit growth could undermine the BRICMT (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, and Turkey) banks’ credit quality, especially amid economic slowdown following years of strong credit growth. In addition, there remain concerns about the rising household debt burden, given still low, although increasing, GDP per capita and cyclicality of these major emerging market economies. Furthermore, the following country-specific factors are pressuring the banks’ asset quality: increasing economic imbalances in Brazil due to a recently accelerating credit expansion by government-owned banks; rapid increase of high–risk unsecured lending in Russia; a highly leveraged corporate sector in India; lackluster export growth, debt-laden local governments, and many manufacturers suffering from oversupply in China; large homebuilders’ woes and deteriorating consumer lending in Mexico; and rapid credit card debt and consumer lending in Turkey.
In the Report :
We think that the acute phase of the EM sell-off may be over. We see value in those
countries with strong fundamentals that have seen sharp sell-offs over the past two
months, including Mexico, Malaysia, and Russia.