Category Archives: Risk

U.S. Corporate Debt Issuance on Pace for Record Year

U.S. corporations continue to take advantage of the accommodative conditions created by a protracted period of low interest rates and strong market participant demand.  As of Oct. 1, 2017, U.S. investment-grade corporate debt issuance surpassed USD 1 trillion—three weeks ahead of 2016’s pace.  Additionally, the amount of speculative-grade corporate debt issued through the first three quarters of 2017 is 17% higher than it was after the first three quarters of 2016.  Combined, U.S. corporate issuance is on pace for another record year, which would mark the sixth consecutive year of increased corporate debt issuance (see Exhibits 1 and 2).

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China: Corporate Governance risks for investors

China adopted its first corporate governance code in 2001, ahead of many APAC peers, with updates in 2011 and 2016. As China’s market becomes more accessible to global investors, corporate governance practices will likely face increased comparison to global standards.  Our report references MSCI ESG Research’s rich corporate governance data to examine the opportunities and risks to minority shareholders presented by current corporate governance practices in the MSCI China Index.

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Delhi Event Invite – Challenges in FRTB Implementation, Oct 27, 7pm

Challenges in FRTB Implementation
Register Now
Date: Friday, October 27, 2017
Time: Registration: 7:00-7:30 PM
Presentation: 7:30-9:00 PM
Networking Reception: 9:00-10:00 PM
Location: Ramada Gurgaon Central
Plot 2 Sector 44, Central Emerald Hall
Gurugram , Haryana , 122003
India
Speaker: Udit Mahajan
Co-Head of Market Risk Projects, Deloitte UK
Synopsis: The Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) represents an evolution of Basel regulation impacting Capital Markets with a deep focus on addressing the failings identified in the financial crisis. FRTB is a material overhaul of the Market Risk framework which impacts all core functions in Capital Markets (front office, risk, finance, treasury, and technology).

This session is focused on some of the key challenges faced by front office, risk methodology, and technology teams when adopting FRTB. Out of the many challenges being faced by banks today, five will be covered in detail:

  1. Front Office-Risk-Finance Alignment
  2. External Transactions and NMRF
  3. Multiple Revaluations in IMA
  4. Capital Optimization and Business Strategy
  5. Trading Desk Structure
 This event is organized as Chapter meeting for GARP
Register Now

Low rates generate 9-month record in US syndicated lending

US syndicated lending surged 24% year-on-year to a record $1.75 trillion in the first nine months, according to Thomson Reuters. The gain was fueled by still-low interest rates enticing indebted companies seeking to pare borrowing costs and acquire corporate targets.

Rising Fear of Extreme Events

High skew levels indicate heightened fears of “tail risk” – the chances of unlikely but highly consequential events that could sink share prices. Low market volatility largely continued through the summer, but how has options skew behaved – has it fallen to more “normal” levels? Do institutional investors appear to be dropping or keeping their downside protection?

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New market risk code won’t trigger big bank capital hikes: Basel

LONDON (Reuters) – Most banks will not have to hike capital significantly to meet stricter rules to counter trading risks, a survey showed on Tuesday, after Asian nations sought to delay introducing the code citing concerns about the need for more funds.

The code, known as the “fundamental review of the trading book” or FRTB, was drawn up by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and tightens “market risk” capital requirements.

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Global debt may be understated by $13 trillion: BIS

LONDON (Reuters) – Global debt may be under-reported by around $13 trillion because traditional accounting practices exclude foreign exchange derivatives used to hedge international trade and foreign currency bonds, the BIS said on Sunday.

Bank for International Settlements researchers said it was hard to assess the risk this “missing” debt poses, but that the main worry was a liquidity crunch like the one that seized FX swap and forwards markets during the financial crisis.

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Placing liquidity at the heart of risk management

Financial regulators around the world have sought to reduce the systemic risk to liquidity caused in periods of market volatility. SEC 22e-4, the US’s most recent regulatory response to liquidity risk, will start to require compliance as early as of June 2018 and while it may feel like there’s enough time to prepare, the challenge of implementing liquidity risk systems at financial firms is actually a significant undertaking.

Correlation Analysis of VIX® and High Yield and Emerging Market Bonds

The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) measures the implied volatility of the S&P 500® over a 30-day period.  It is widely followed by market participants across asset classes to gauge market sentiment.  Traditionally, fixed income market participants have incorporated it into macro analysis.

Can VIX-related products be used as hedging tools for some bond sectors that exhibit certain equity-like features?  For high yield and emerging market bonds, credit and liquidity risks are more defining than duration risk.  Dor and Guan (2017) demonstrated that equity futures can be used to hedge high yield portfolios.  We investigated a correlation analysis of high yield and emerging market bonds to VIX and VIX futures.

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The Risk in CoCo Bonds You Could Be Missing

Contingent Convertible bonds – known as “CoCos” – have grown popular among European (and increasingly Asian) financial institutions since the 2008-09 financial crisis. They offer attractive yields but come with a challenge: figuring out when a CoCo bond is at risk of being converted to equity, which effectively can eradicate the bond’s value.

The answer, as MSCI’s Gergely Szalka writes in a new blog post, may lie in having a dedicated risk model that picks up on early warning signs. Gergely shows how MSCI’s CoCo pricing podel would have detected the rising risk that preceded this year’s collapse of Spain’s Banco Popular ahead of a standard risk model.

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How the Liquidity of S&P 500 Investment-Grade Bonds Compares Against Non-S&P 500 Bonds

Liquidity may be defined as the ability to buy or sell a bond within a reasonable period of time and at a reasonable price.  A simple way to compare two bonds is through the use of Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE) daily volume data.  The data represents the daily aggregation of each reported trade throughout the day.  The existence of reported volume data can be indicative of the frequency of trading.  For example, if a bond has volume data for 20 of the last 22 trading days, then it trades relatively frequently—nearly every day.  The volume data itself can also indicate the size in which it trades daily.  For two bonds, we can compare the turnover rate, defined as the total volume traded in 22 days as a percentage of the amount outstanding.  For example, a bond may be considered more liquid relative to another one if a larger portion of its total outstanding is traded over a one-month period.

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[Webcast] Examine Risk-Based Approaches to Multi-Asset Strategies, Sept 28, 2pm ET

TRADITIONALLY, THE RETURNS FROM ONE ASSET CLASS have tended to be uncorrelated with the returns of other asset classes, leading to the widespread investment practice of diversification. As investors continue to seek positive returns with lower levels of risk, the time is right for examining Risk-Based Approaches to Multi-Asset Strategies.

Register now, Sept 28, 2pm EST

TOPICS OF DISCUSSION
Economics now—where are we in the cycle and what can we expect next?
Hedging—what can mainstream investors do to hedge against future events?
Diversification—a foundation stone of Modern Portfolio Theory—is it still one of the best solutions for asset allocation and management? 

Default reinforces wariness over Chinese corporate bonds

Bondholders in China’s Wuyang Construction Group are furious over the company’s default as they note its failure to reveal a long list of problems when the bonds were sold. The tale of woe is just one casting a pall over China’s efforts to build up its corporate bond market, where companies are more accustomed to government bailouts than the possibility of failure.

Hedging points to rising caution over corporate debt

Money continues to flow into the US investment-grade bond market but there’s also hedging as investors turn to credit default swaps. Analysts see the recent growth in that market as a sign of caution and possibly a leading indicator of bond market weakness.

Mckinsey : Impact investing finds its place in India

Rising demand for socially responsible and purpose-driven finance has resulted in new ways of putting capital to work the world over. In the past decade, what is now known as “impact investing” has challenged the long-held view that social returns should be funded by philanthropy and financial returns should be funded by mainstream investors.

ISDA Webinar : The Foundations of an Efficient Market Infrastructure, 14 Sept 8am ET

ISDA will host an introductory webinar tomorrow (Thursday, September 14) at 8:00 am NY time / 1:00 pm London time to provide an overview of an initiative to facilitate the adoption of emerging technologies, such as distributed ledger and smart contracts. The webinar will cover the importance of common data and process standards to aid interoperability, and will provide an update on ISDA’s work to identify and define core lifecycle events and actions and consolidate them within a so-called common domain model (CDM).

All participants must register in advance to listen to the webinar by clicking here.

Register now

https://services.choruscall.com/links/isda170914.html

Treasury bill yield curve signals 15% chance of US default

 

There is a 15% chance Congress will fail to raise the federal government’s debt limit in time to avoid sending the debt into technical default, according to the Treasury bill yield curve. The conclusion is based on a formula that looks at Treasury yields for debt maturing around the date the government would run out of cash, and compares it with yields on bills maturing at other times

Big banks signal approaching downturn

Analysts at Citigroup, HSBC Holdings and Morgan Stanley are warning that the end is near for the world’s market rallies and that the business cycle is headed into a downturn. They say investors are ignoring important data and market valuations, putting debt and equity markets at risk of sharp corrections

What the debt ceiling debate means for corporate debt

 

If the US were to lose its AAA credit rating due to failure to raise the debt ceiling, markets would certainly react. But two Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists say the rating change would have little immediate effect on investment-grade corporate debt, although the Washington dysfunction suggested by the situation would