Broad-based equity markets have been on a rollercoaster ride since Jan. 30, 2018, as market participants appear to be reassessing the impact of inflation and potential consequences from the recent tax reform. While volatility appears to be back, high-grade corporate bond spreads have tightened to levels not seen since 2007. Compared with the last episode of substantive volatility in equities, there is a noticeable difference in how credit markets are reacting (see Exhibit 1).
The emergence of ethical and sustainable concerns and the need for environmental investing has come with a wide range of options for fixed income market participants to navigate. One approach has been to rely on evaluation metrics, or ratings that measure the environmental and social impact of companies’ operations. The main challenge of this approach is that currently there is no clear standard of measurement in the market. Researchers at MIT working on the Aggregate Confusion Project found that when they compared “two of the top five ESG rating agencies and compute the rank correlation across firms in a particular year, we are likely to obtain a correlation of the order of 10 to 15 percent. At least the correlation is positive! It is very likely (about 5 to 10 percent of the firms) that the firm that is in the top 5 percent for one rating agency belongs to the bottom 20 percent for the other.”
wenty banking giants have agreed to support the scandal-hit benchmark the London interbank offered rate (Libor) until an alternative is found in 2021 so that the transition doesn’t rattle markets.
Businesses are showing increasing interest in using the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to inform and enhance their social and environmental programs and ultimately their business strategies. The SDGs were adopted by the United Nations in 2015 and include 17 ambitious goals and 169 targets aimed at ending poverty, protecting the planet, and ensuring prosperity for all.
BNP Paribas SA will cease funding and advising tobacco companies as the French lender seeks to distance itself from the industry over health concerns.
Eight years since the birth of bitcoin, central banks around the world are increasingly recognizing the potential upsides and downsides of digital currencies.
The guardians of the global economy have two sets of issues to address. First is what to do, if anything, about emergence and growth of the private cryptocurrencies that are grabbing more and more attention — with bitcoin now surging toward $10,000. The second question is whether to issue official versions.
European bond traders are looking on the bright side of tougher transparency rules — unprecedented market data that can help them make sure they’re not getting ripped off. New regulations will require details on many transactions to be published within 15 minutes, and sometimes before the trade has gone through, previously unheard of in the traditionally opaque bond market. Some dealers and investors are starting to plan how they will capture and analyze the data to help them work out fair values for trades.“Everyone should be analyzing and using the data to better understand the market,” said Mehmet Mazi, HSBC Holdings Plc’s global head of credit trading, and a speaker at this week’s Fixed Income Leaders Summit in Amsterdam. “Firms who do this smarter will have an edge.”Traders are welcoming the influx of data even though it risks making their jobs harder by potentially exposing their intentions to other parties in the predominantly over-the-counter market. Read more
Derivatives markets have grown markedly in Asia-Pacific in the past decade, with Hong Kong and Singapore now pre-eminent in regional trading of FX and interest rate derivatives (IRD). Total IRD daily average turnover in Asia-Pacific markets increased to $298.3 billion (US dollars unless otherwise specified) in April 2016 from $187.4 billion in April 2007, while the equivalent figure in FX increased to $1.7 trillion from $1 trillion.
This rate of growth has outstripped that of global derivatives markets. Between 2007 and 2016, IRD turnover in Asia-Pacific markets grew at 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), while FX turnover grew at 6%. Global IRD and FX turnover grew at 4% and 5% CAGR, respectively, over the same period.
As the debate over the SEC rule 22e-4 continues, one fact remains constant: for mutual fund managers and ETF sponsors, prudent liquidity risk management practices are critical to fulfilling their fiduciary responsibility. Whether the rule is altered or delayed, firms will ultimately need to revisit these practices and their compliance programs. Compliance requires robust data and valuation coverage as well as a strong multi-asset class risk framework and reporting capabilities.
Join Carlo Acerbi, Managing Director of Risk and Regulation Research at MSCI, and Dan Huscher, Executive Director of Fixed Income Pricing Product Development at IHS Markit, who will discuss how the latest industry developments may impact the implementation of SEC rule 22e-4 and the role data and analytics play in establishing a liquidity risk management program.
- Practical Guidance for Establishing a Liquidity Risk Management Program
- IHS Markit’s Approach to Gathering Data on Thinly-traded Instruments
- Overview of MSCI LiquidityMetrics Multi-asset Class Liquidity Risk Management Framework
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U.S. corporations continue to take advantage of the accommodative conditions created by a protracted period of low interest rates and strong market participant demand. As of Oct. 1, 2017, U.S. investment-grade corporate debt issuance surpassed USD 1 trillion—three weeks ahead of 2016’s pace. Additionally, the amount of speculative-grade corporate debt issued through the first three quarters of 2017 is 17% higher than it was after the first three quarters of 2016. Combined, U.S. corporate issuance is on pace for another record year, which would mark the sixth consecutive year of increased corporate debt issuance (see Exhibits 1 and 2).
China adopted its first corporate governance code in 2001, ahead of many APAC peers, with updates in 2011 and 2016. As China’s market becomes more accessible to global investors, corporate governance practices will likely face increased comparison to global standards. Our report references MSCI ESG Research’s rich corporate governance data to examine the opportunities and risks to minority shareholders presented by current corporate governance practices in the MSCI China Index.
|Challenges in FRTB Implementation|
High skew levels indicate heightened fears of “tail risk” – the chances of unlikely but highly consequential events that could sink share prices. Low market volatility largely continued through the summer, but how has options skew behaved – has it fallen to more “normal” levels? Do institutional investors appear to be dropping or keeping their downside protection?
LONDON (Reuters) – Most banks will not have to hike capital significantly to meet stricter rules to counter trading risks, a survey showed on Tuesday, after Asian nations sought to delay introducing the code citing concerns about the need for more funds.
The code, known as the “fundamental review of the trading book” or FRTB, was drawn up by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and tightens “market risk” capital requirements.
LONDON (Reuters) – Global debt may be under-reported by around $13 trillion because traditional accounting practices exclude foreign exchange derivatives used to hedge international trade and foreign currency bonds, the BIS said on Sunday.
Bank for International Settlements researchers said it was hard to assess the risk this “missing” debt poses, but that the main worry was a liquidity crunch like the one that seized FX swap and forwards markets during the financial crisis.
Financial regulators around the world have sought to reduce the systemic risk to liquidity caused in periods of market volatility. SEC 22e-4, the US’s most recent regulatory response to liquidity risk, will start to require compliance as early as of June 2018 and while it may feel like there’s enough time to prepare, the challenge of implementing liquidity risk systems at financial firms is actually a significant undertaking.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) measures the implied volatility of the S&P 500® over a 30-day period. It is widely followed by market participants across asset classes to gauge market sentiment. Traditionally, fixed income market participants have incorporated it into macro analysis.
Can VIX-related products be used as hedging tools for some bond sectors that exhibit certain equity-like features? For high yield and emerging market bonds, credit and liquidity risks are more defining than duration risk. Dor and Guan (2017) demonstrated that equity futures can be used to hedge high yield portfolios. We investigated a correlation analysis of high yield and emerging market bonds to VIX and VIX futures.
Contingent Convertible bonds – known as “CoCos” – have grown popular among European (and increasingly Asian) financial institutions since the 2008-09 financial crisis. They offer attractive yields but come with a challenge: figuring out when a CoCo bond is at risk of being converted to equity, which effectively can eradicate the bond’s value.
The answer, as MSCI’s Gergely Szalka writes in a new blog post, may lie in having a dedicated risk model that picks up on early warning signs. Gergely shows how MSCI’s CoCo pricing podel would have detected the rising risk that preceded this year’s collapse of Spain’s Banco Popular ahead of a standard risk model.