Daily Archives: September 6, 2017

Treasury bill yield curve signals 15% chance of US default

 

There is a 15% chance Congress will fail to raise the federal government’s debt limit in time to avoid sending the debt into technical default, according to the Treasury bill yield curve. The conclusion is based on a formula that looks at Treasury yields for debt maturing around the date the government would run out of cash, and compares it with yields on bills maturing at other times