Business and Credit Cycles

While often attempted history proves that one cannot repeal the business and credit cycle.  The cycle always seems to be the same although the triggers and environment may be different.  Losses peak, loan demand and supply dry up, the appetite for risk evaporates while households and businesses begin the process of repairing their respective balance sheets.  Slowly investors start stretching for yield and lenders (banks, shadow banks and capital markets) begin to ease credit terms, soon followed by increased usage of leverage.  A review of the Federal Reserve Senior Credit Officer Survey bears out this cycle.

This cyclical nature of credit and default risk can clearly be seen from the history of the Kamakura Troubled Company Index going back to its introduction in 1990.


The Association of International Wealth Management of India (AIWMI) is a not-for-profit organization and a globally recognized membership association for finance professionals. AIWMI primarily focuses on the broad and strategic role of developing a more robust and forward-looking training infrastructure for the financial services sector and to promote more active industry involvement and collaboration in training and continuing education. AIWMI is offering advanced international certification programs along with a wide variety of high-quality executive education programs. AIWMI programs combine state-of-the-art knowledge and skills with practical experience and insights into the functioning of the financial sector. All AIWMI courses and educational events have an intense and pragmatic curriculum. Participants are exposed to the latest developments within the financial services sector. AIWMI plays a key role in guiding the development of the financial services sector. AIWMI works with key industry participants’ viz. the Government, the Regulators, the Industries/Associations, the Corporate, the Media and the General Public to achieve its objectives. Besides enhancing technical competence and professionalism in the industry, AIWMI organizes events and facilitates discussions to promote best practices in leadership and talent development in the financial sector with an aim to become Asia’s premier center of excellence for financial education.

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