Trends in Sovereign Credit Risk Assessment

The Asian Institute of Chartered Bankers has just published “A Best Practice Approach to Modeling Sovereign Defaults” in the December 2014 issue of its Banking Insight magazine. Since the article, which I co-authored with my colleagues Suresh Sankaran and Dr. Clement Ooi, was targetted toward the Asia market, it is helpful to emphasize some of the most important points in modeling sovereign default risk from a world-wide perspective. There are three key points in modeling sovereign default risk that we explain in the rest of this article:

  • The credit default swap market is a very problematic source of credit information and, at best, it is reliable only for a short list of reference names.
  • The conflict of interest faced by legacy rating agencies is even more extreme in the sovereign case than it is in the well-documented corporate and structured products markets.
  • Modern statistical modeling techniques are best practice and the only realistic alternative to the credit default swap market and legacy credit ratings.

We outline the reasons for these assertions in the rest of this note. Read more



The Association of International Wealth Management of India (AIWMI) is a not-for-profit organization and a globally recognized membership association for finance professionals. AIWMI primarily focuses on the broad and strategic role of developing a more robust and forward-looking training infrastructure for the financial services sector and to promote more active industry involvement and collaboration in training and continuing education. AIWMI is offering advanced international certification programs along with a wide variety of high-quality executive education programs. AIWMI programs combine state-of-the-art knowledge and skills with practical experience and insights into the functioning of the financial sector. All AIWMI courses and educational events have an intense and pragmatic curriculum. Participants are exposed to the latest developments within the financial services sector. AIWMI plays a key role in guiding the development of the financial services sector. AIWMI works with key industry participants’ viz. the Government, the Regulators, the Industries/Associations, the Corporate, the Media and the General Public to achieve its objectives. Besides enhancing technical competence and professionalism in the industry, AIWMI organizes events and facilitates discussions to promote best practices in leadership and talent development in the financial sector with an aim to become Asia’s premier center of excellence for financial education.

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