Monthly Archives: January 2015

2015 U.S. Corporate Credit Outlook: Generally Stable, But Risks Are Rising

2015 U.S. Corporate Credit Outlook: Generally Stable, But Risks Are Rising

Our credit outlook for U.S. corporate ratings in 2015 is generally stable. We expect continued U.S. economic improvement to counteract slower growth overseas. We also see U.S. corporate revenue continuing to grow in the mid-single digits in 2015, in line with aggregate nominal economic growth prospects. Although the sharp decline in oil prices will weigh on energy sector conditions, it will immediately benefit airlines, trucking, and auto manufacturers, while lowering energy costs for many other segments of the economy. It could also boost consumer spending in 2015 and 2016, but stronger income gains are likely needed for more robust long-term growth. We forecast that corporate refinancings will remain manageable in 2015 because protracted low interest rates and credit-friendly borrowing conditions have allowed many companies to push out maturities. However, U.S. interest rates are reaching an inflection point, and we expect the Federal Reserve to make its first policy interest rate increase in second-quarter 2015.

Attend our Live Facebook Q&A Event – Careers in Credit and Banking, on 30th Jan 2015, 4pm IST at

Webinar : Credit Outlook for Power Sector, 30 Jan 2015, 3.30 pm – 4.30 pm IST

Webinar : Credit Outlook for Power Sector Outlook 30 Jan 2015, 3.30 pm – 4.30 pm IST

Register now

Attend our Live Facebook Q&A Event – Careers in Credit and Banking, on 30th Jan 2015, 4pm IST at

Economic Conditions Snapshot, December 2014: McKinsey Global Survey results

Geopolitical instability persists as a top risk to global growth, as it has been all year—and especially in North America. Yet few executives say it will affect their companies’ plans for 2015.

December 2014

Geopolitical concerns remain paramount as a risk to growth for executives, whose optimism for the global economy in early 2014 has faded over the course of the year. This is particularly true in North America, where respondents to McKinsey’s newest survey on economic conditions are most glum about the world economy’s prospects—even as they report consistent improvements at home.1 Despite these concerns, few executives say geopolitical issues will meaningfully affect their companies’ strategic and financial-planning decisions for 2015. But heading into a new year, respondents anticipate other problems on the horizon: volatile exchange rates and oil prices (more acute concerns among emerging-economy executives) and cybersecurity attacks, which respondents in North America are the likeliest to expect as a potential economic shock in the next 12 months. Read more

Attend our Live Facebook Q&A Event – Careers in Credit and Banking, on 30th Jan 2015, 4pm IST at

Webinar : Credit Outlook on Real Estate 28 Jan 2015, 3.30 pm – 4.30 pm IST

Webinar : Credit Outlook on Real Estate 28 Jan 2015, 3.30 pm – 4.30 pm IST

Register now

Attend our Live Facebook Q&A Event – Careers in Credit and Banking, on 30th Jan 2015, 4pm IST at


1:30 pm Singapore/Hong Kong time, 4:30 pm Melbourne/Sydney time

What is the fossil fuel debate?
What are the current challenges in the market?
Is this a threat to asset owners?

o What risks is your portfolio facing?
o What strategies should asset owners be adopting or considering in dealing with this very stormy topic?
o Can you afford to just do nothing?
o Does divestment make sense?
Climate change and the fossil fuel debate. Is it just hot air or a real threat to asset owners?
Friday, 30 January 2015
1:30 pm Singapore/Hong Kong time (GMT+8)
4:30 pm Melbourne/Sydney time (GMT+11)
Mamadou-Abou Sarr, Global Head of ESG, Northern Trust Asset Management
Paula DiPerna, Special Advisor, CDP North America
Jessica Robinson, CEO, ASRIA
Leigh Powell, Editor, AsianInvestor
Register :

Asset Management at Northern Trust comprises Northern Trust Investments, Inc., Northern Trust Global Investments Limited, Northern Trust Global Investments Japan, K.K., NT Global Advisors, Inc. and investment personnel of The Northern Trust Company of Hong Kong Limited and The Northern Trust Company.

About Northern Trust:
Northern Trust Corporation (Nasdaq: NTRS) is a leading provider of asset servicing, fund administration, asset management, fiduciary, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. Chicago-based Northern Trust has offices in 19 states, Washington, D.C., and 20 international locations in Canada, Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. As of September 30, 2014, Northern Trust had assets under custody of US$5.9 trillion, and assets under investment management of US$923.3 billion. For 125 years, Northern Trust has earned distinction as an industry leader in combining exceptional service and expertise with innovative products and technology. For more information, visit and follow us on Twitter @NorthernTrust.

Leigh Powell
Editor, AsianInvestor
Speakers: Mamadou-Abou Sarr
Global Head of ESG, Northern Trust Asset ManagementPaula DiPerna
Special Advisor, CDP North AmericaJessica Robinson

Attend our Live Facebook Q&A Event – Careers in Credit and Banking, on 30th Jan 2015, 4pm IST at


Join S&P Webcast On APAC 2015 Sovereign Rating Trends, Jan 23, 1230pm IST

Webcast and Q&A on the rating trends for Asia-Pacific sovereigns in 2015.

Register now.

Political developments is an important factor shaping credit trends in Asia-Pacific in the next few years. In this webcast, our sovereign analyst will explain what lies ahead for sovereigns in our region amid significant economic uncertainties and falling global oil price.

•Kim Eng Tan
, Senior Director, Sovereign Ratings

You will need computer speakers or headphones to listen to the webcast. You may submit your questions for the speakers in real time via the web interface. Please test your system here at least 15min before the scheduled start time. If you are not able to view a short flash video play with audio, please email us for a dial-in number. Participants who listen by phone only will NOT be able to submit a question. Please email us your questions instead.

Visit a free, interactive, and informative portal to access highlights from our credit research offerings. Consider this your portal to perspective:

India Ratings Webinar on Credit Outlook FY16 for Auto & Auto Ancillary Sector, Jan 20, 330pm IST

Credit Outlook FY16 for Auto & Auto Ancillary Sector


Webinar: Emerging Market Bonds: the widening opportunities in 2015, Jan 21, 530pm IST

Emerging Market Bonds: the widening opportunities in 2015
Claudia Calich, Fund Manager, Emerging Markets Bond Fund, M&G
Jan 21 2015 3:30 pm, Asia – Calcutta
Duration 45 mins
2014 was an eventful year for emerging markets. After a relatively strong period which lasted all the way to September, markets corrected in the latter part of the year as the negative headlines from the Russian crisis and the falling oil price triggered bouts of volatility and risk averseness. Looking ahead, we expect asset allocation between hard and local currency to remain a key driver, particularly in the earlier part of 2015. In hard currency, credit selection will remain even more important as we expect return dispersion to increase. After having a relatively low allocation to local currency debt in 2014, we are looking to selectively add exposure in 2015 to countries where the current account adjustment is advancing or where valuations undershoot fundamentals.

Webinar: Arbitraging News Sentiment Across Global Asset Classes, 21 Jan 2015, 830pm IST

Presenter: Richard Peterson; MarketPsych

Register now

Webinar Abstract:

In our research on the new global equities Thomson Reuters MarketPsych Indices (TRMI), we have found that several sentiments and macroeconomic themes are markers of overreaction and, less so, underreaction across stocks in global markets. Both Canadian and American listed stocks are underpriced when high levels of media Anger are associated with them (Anger TRMI), with American stocks particularly overreacting when corporate leadership is mistrusted (ManagementTrust TRMI). Hong Kong stocks overreact to weekly news Sentiment (Sentiment TRMI). Singporean stocks overreact to Volatility (Volatiity TRMI). Some themes are common to global markets, and others are region-specific and may be based on regional media delivery and market structural factors. Cultural factors, as illuminated in experimental psychology research, may also be at work. The mispricings based on these indicators lend themselves to powerful rotating “information arbitrage” models. This talk will illuminate the key drivers of global stocks over various time horizons with reference to local explanatory variables. The talk will also highlight the ongoing forward-tested outperformance of rotational weekly and yearly models discussed in prior Unicom events.

Presenter CV:

Richard Peterson is CEO of MarketPsych Data which produces psychological and macroeconomic data derived from text analytics of news and social media. MarketPsych’s data is consumed by the world’s largest hedge funds. Dr. Peterson is an award-winning financial writer, an associate editor of the Journal of Behavioral Finance, has published widely in academia, and performed postdoctoral neuroeconomics research at Stanford University.

BIS : Dollar credit to emerging market economies

We profile the US dollar debt incurred by borrowers in a dozen prominent emerging market economies (EMEs). These countries account for the bulk of total US dollar debt owed by EMEs. We measure the dollar borrowing of non-banks resident in these economies as well as that of their affiliates offshore, and relate these items to commonly used debt measures. We also discuss the limitations of our data. These data fail to assign bank debt to the right home country if firms have obtained dollar bank loans through offshore affiliates. And they understate dollar debt when firms borrow dollars indirectly through foreign exchange forwards.

Read more/Download

Join us – India Ratings Webinar on Macro-economic Credit Outlook FY16, Jan 19, 2015, 330pm IST

India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) expects FY16 gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 6.5% (FY15: 5.6%) based on its estimates that the industrial sector will grow 6.5% (3.6%).



We invite you to join a webinar to discuss the outlook on January 19, 2015 at 3:30 PM.

Click on Register Now 

Webinar : Basel III Implementation: Jan 21, 2015, 10am ET

Basel III Implementation: Tackling Capital, Collateral, Liquidity, Stress Testing and Enterprise Consistency Challenges in 2015 and Beyond
The intent of Basel III is a strengthened framework of international standards for bank capital adequacy and liquidity with the objective of preventing systemic failures like those seen across the banking sector during the 2008 crisis. While many of the goals behind Basel III — such as greater emphasis on Collateral, Stress Testing, CVA VaR, Liquidity Risk, and Capital Optimization — are clear, the implementation of such goals and measures, their intersections, and the resulting need for greater consistency across the banking enterprise remain a major challenge as 2015 begins.
Join Numerix and Chartis on Wednesday, January 21st at 10am EST as featured speakers Steven Rogers, Research Director, Chartis and Satyam Kancharla, Chief Strategy Officer & SVP of Client Solutions Group, Numerix discuss the latest research and trends across the industry around Basel III implementation as well as best practices for a Basel III implementation framework.
In the first part of our presentation Steven Rogers will present Chartis research and findings on:
  • Capital optimization vs. Capital Adequacy
  • Collateral optimization in the face of liquidity risk regulation
  • Liquidity management with respect to the demands regulators have for increased reporting
  • Stress testing increased frequency and scope
  • Overlapping responsibilities of (a) Front-office, (b) Finance and Treasury and (c) Risk and Compliance
As institutions embark on implementing the necessary changes around Basel III, the focus is shifting from Compliance with regulatory mandates to Optimizing business lines and trade activity. In part two of our webinar, Satyam Kancharla will cover best practices for implementing these enterprise-wide changes from an analytics, technology, process and organizational perspective. He will address:
  • Building a robust enterprise wide analytic framework
  • Supporting stress testing on a consistent basis
  • Managing the Regulatory Compliance vs Regulatory Optimization tradeoff
  • Leveraging technology advancements to serve Risk analytics
  • Aligning Processes and Organization to deliver Risk projects effectively
Attendance is complimentary, Registration is required.
Space is limited, reserve your seat today!
Featured Speakers:
Steven Rogers, Research Director, ChartisSteven Rogers, Research Director, Chartis
Steven Rogers is a Research Director at Chartis with a focus on risk technology solution delivery, risk data governance and risk data management. Steven has over 20 years of experience with technology solutions for banking in international markets.
Mr. Rogers has extensive knowledge in the delivery capabilities of risk management software vendors. Previously he directed a portfolio of 100 concurrently running Market, Credit and Operational risk projects in 16 EMEA countries. He has provided consulting services to banks in Asia, North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Based in Frankfurt, he was responsible for building Logica’s risk management consulting practice.
Mr. Rogers is also actively engaged in researching the practical application of data visualization, “big data” analytics, graph databases and Artificial Intelligence to regulatory driven risk management requirements such as BCBS 239.
Mr. Rogers holds a PhD from the University of Guelph.
Satyam Kancharla, Chief Strategy Officer & SVP of Client Solutions Group, NumerixSatyam Kancharla, Chief Strategy Officer & SVP of Client Solutions Group, Numerix
Mr. Kancharla, as Chief Strategy Officer and Senior Vice President, is responsible for corporate strategy and currently heads the Client Solutions Group at Numerix. This group is responsible for Product Management, Financial Engineering and Business Analysis. Prior to this, he has served in various roles in Quantitative Software Development, Financial Engineering and Client Services at Numerix. Before transferring to Numerix in New York City, he was the CTO for Numerix Japan LLC in Tokyo, heading the Pre-Sales and Financial Engineering teams for Asia.
Prior to joining Numerix in 2003, Mr. Kancharla also worked with Merrill Lynch and GE Capital in Quantitative Finance and Product Development roles.
He holds an MBA degree from New York University’s Stern School of Business, an MSc degree in Applied Statistics and Informatics from Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay and a BScin Mathematics and Computers from the University of Mumbai.
Jim Jockle, Chief Marketing Officer, NumerixModerator: Jim Jockle, Chief Marketing Officer, Numerix
Mr. Jockle leads the company’s global marketing efforts, spanning a diverse set of solutions and audiences. He oversees integrated marketing communications to customers in the largest global financial markets and to the Numerix partner network through the company’s branding, electronic marketing, research, events, public relations, advertising and relationship marketing.
Prior to joining Numerix, he served as Managing Director of Global Marketing and Communications for Fitch Ratings. During his tenure at Fitch, Mr. Jockle built the firm’s public relations program, oversaw investor relations and led marketing and communications plans for several acquisitions. He also oversaw the brand development of a new company dedicated to the enhancement of credit derivative and structured-credit ratings, products and services. Prior to Fitch, Mr. Jockle was a member of the communications team at Moody’s Investors Service.

What’s Ahead For European Sovereigns In 2015

The eurozone appears to be in a contradictory state of affairs. Long-term government bond yields have dropped to all-time lows, despite increases in government debt. More

Webinar : Delhi International Airport Pte. Ltd. Assigned ‘BB’ Rating, Jan 15, 830am IST

Date & Time: Thursday January 15, 2015  India 8.30 a.m.

Please join us for an audio-only webcast on the new rating on Delhi International Airport, the first infrastructure company rated in India. This webcast is provided on a complimentary basis. 

Register now.

We will discuss our assessment of the competitive position, regulatory environment, and our expectations of financial projections for DIAL. We will also discuss the relationship with its parent GMR Infrastructure, role of Airport Authority of India as a strategic shareholder and compare it with other airports rated in the region.

•Mehul Sukkawala,
Director, Corporate Ratings
•Thomas Jacquot,
Senior Director, Corporate Ratings

You will need computer speakers or headphones to listen to the webcast. You may submit your questions for the speakers in real time via the web interface. Please test your system here at least 15min before the scheduled start time. If you are not able to view a short flash video play with audio, please email us for a dial-in number.Participants who listen by phone only will NOT be able to submit a question. Please email us your questions instead.



Sovereign Risk Indicators

“Sovereign Risk Indicators” contains comparative statistics for rated sovereigns. Tables 1-4 include economic measures, fiscal and debt indicators, balance-of-payments information, and external balance sheet data. To view the full data set, please click on the “View Expanded Table” tab at the top of each table. A glossary at the end of this article explains the reported concepts.

Read more

An interactive version of the Sovereign Risk Indicators can be found at Sovereign Risk Indicators is published quarterly; the next publication will be released on March 23, 2015.

Kamakura Reports Significant Decline in Corporate Credit Quality during December 2014

NEW YORK, January 5, 2015: Kamakura Corporation reported Monday that the Kamakura troubled company index ended the month of December at 6.42%, an increase of 1.31% from the end of November. The index reflects the percentage of the Kamakura 34,000 public firm universe that has a default probability over 1.00%. An increase in the index reflects declining credit quality while a decrease reflects improving credit quality.

As of the end of December, the percentage of the global corporate universe with default probabilities between 1% and 5% was 5.03%, up 0.92% from November; the percentage of the universe with default probabilities between 5% and 10% was 0.95%, up 0.27%; the percentage between 10% and 20% was 0.31%, up 0.6%; while the percentage of companies with default probabilities over 20% was 0.13%, up 0.06 from the previous month.

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Webinar : Detecting Emotion, Intent, Deception and other Signals in Text, 13 Jan 2015, 730pm IST

Webinar Abstract:
All sentiment analysis systems can deliver positive/negative/neutral classifications. But there are many other useful signals in text:
emotion, intent, speculation, risk, etc. This talk will present a survey of relevant techniques and the state of the art in recognising these other dimensions of sentiment in text and describe some practical and some potential applications in finance and elsewhere.
Presenter: Stephen Pulman; TheySay Analytics

Presenter CV:  Stephen Pulman is Professor of Computational Linguistics at the Department of Computer Science, Oxford University. He is a Professorial Fellow of Somerville College, Oxford, and a Fellow of the British Academy. He has also held visiting professorships at the Institut für Maschinelle Sprachverarbeitung, University of Stuttgart; and at Copenhagen Business School. He is a co-founder of TheySay Ltd. Previous positions include Professor of General Linguistics at Oxford University, Assistant Professor (Reader) at the University of Cambridge Computer Laboratory, and Director of SRI International’s Cambridge Computer Science Research Center.

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Bankers, regulators worried about declining credit standards

Bankers, regulators worried about declining credit standards

Banking consultant J.V. Rizzi writes that the current race to the bottom for lending standards, particularly in leveraged loans and real estate, suggests that banks don’t remember the hard lessons of the financial crisis. The problem is real and many bankers and regulators are worried about it, he notes. American Banker magazine(1/2015)