Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services projects that the 127 rated sovereigns globally will borrow an equivalent of $7.1 trillion from long-term commercial sources in 2014 (for a full list and respective ratings see “Sovereign Ratings And Country T&C Assessments,” published Feb. 21, 2014, on RatingsDirect). This would be a 2.7% increase in long-term commercial debt issuance compared with 2013. Approximately 61%, or $4.4 trillion of the sovereigns’ gross borrowing will be to refinance maturing long-term debt, resulting in an estimated net borrowing requirement of $2.8 trillion (see table 1).
Consequently, we project that commercial debt by rated sovereigns will reach an equivalent of $44.7 trillion by the end of 2014, and that the total commercial and official bilateral and multilateral debt stock will reach $46.0 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. We expect that outstanding short-term commercial debt will end 2014 largely unchanged at $5.3 trillion.
(Watch the related CreditMatters TV segment titled “Key Takeaways From S&P’s Global Sovereign Debt Report: Global Sovereign Issuance To Surpass $7 Trillion In 2014,” dated Feb. 27, 2014).