Asian Development Outlook Forecast Skill

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International Monetary Fund are used as a benchmark against which to derive a comparative measure of the accuracy of ADO forecasts, or skill.

ADO is found to be ‘more skillful’ than WEO in estimating both current-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index (CPI) inflation of Asian economies. WEO may have an edge over ADO when it comes to year-ahead GDP forecasts, while ADO’s inflation forecasts tend to be more accurate. By and large, and notwithstanding much heterogeneity across economies and years, both sets of forecasts display a high degree of inaccuracy during the crisis years.

Download the full book at http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2014/ewp-386.pdf

Advertisements

About AIWMI

The Association of International Wealth Management of India (AIWMI) is a not-for-profit organization and a globally recognized membership association for finance professionals. AIWMI primarily focuses on the broad and strategic role of developing a more robust and forward-looking training infrastructure for the financial services sector and to promote more active industry involvement and collaboration in training and continuing education. AIWMI is offering advanced international certification programs along with a wide variety of high-quality executive education programs. AIWMI programs combine state-of-the-art knowledge and skills with practical experience and insights into the functioning of the financial sector. All AIWMI courses and educational events have an intense and pragmatic curriculum. Participants are exposed to the latest developments within the financial services sector. AIWMI plays a key role in guiding the development of the financial services sector. AIWMI works with key industry participants’ viz. the Government, the Regulators, the Industries/Associations, the Corporate, the Media and the General Public to achieve its objectives. Besides enhancing technical competence and professionalism in the industry, AIWMI organizes events and facilitates discussions to promote best practices in leadership and talent development in the financial sector with an aim to become Asia’s premier center of excellence for financial education.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s