Some analysts have turned up the volume on the risks facing Asia’s emerging economies. At the same time, global financial markets are exhibiting more turbulence, with significant sell-offs in emerging markets. Capital is exiting Asia, bourses and currencies are coming under pressure, funding costs are rising, and some company balance sheets are coming under stress. This has been particularly true in South and Southeast Asia, where external deficits are the norm. This market turbulence comes on the heels of recent cuts in Asian GDP growth estimates, most notably for China. Are we on the verge of a repeat of the Asian financial crisis as the region pays for its excessive borrowing post-Lehman? The road may be rocky in the near term, particularly for the largest deficit countries–India and Indonesia–but we don’t think this is the Asian crisis all over again.
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