India’s Top 100 Corporates: What Are Key Risks And Trends?

India’s Top 100 Corporates: What Are Key Risks And Trends?

Mehul Sukkawala
Senior Director

India is one of the few bright spots in the global economic landscape in 2015, and S&P believes that the country is at an inflection point. Mehul Sukkawala, Senior Director of Corporate Ratings discusses the key risks and trends for India’s top 100 corporates that S&P analyzed

India Ratings Webinar on Axis Bank Credit Profile post results, May 7 10am and 630pm IST

India Ratings and Research is hosting a webinar to discuss the credit analysis of Axis Bank based on the results announced recently. Join our analysts for an in-depth analysis and discussion on financial performance, asset quality, credit metrics and credit outlook of the bank.

We invite you to join the webinar on May 07, 2015 at
12:30 PM SG/HK; 10:00 AM IST (for APAC participants) & at
9:00 AM EDT/2:00 PM London; 6:30 PM IST (for North America and Europe participants)

Click on Register Now 

Webinar : The Power of Rebalancing: Fact, Fiction and Why it Matters, May 6 , 630pm IST

The Power of Rebalancing: Fact, Fiction and Why it Matters

When:
Wednesday 6th May 2:00pm BST (3:00pm CEST / 9:00am ET)

Presented by:

–  Adrian Banner, Ph.D., chief executive officer and chief investment officer of INTECH
–  David Schofield, president of INTECH’s international division

Presenter:

Brendan Maton

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The Power of Rebalancing: Fact, Fiction and Why it Matters

It is well-understood that rebalancing is a necessary step in restoring a portfolio of volatile assets back to its target weights. Whether it is performed periodically or triggered when actual weightings move too far from target, rebalancing a portfolio will naturally lead to selling assets that have outperformed the portfolio, and buying assets that have underperformed the portfolio.

It is much less widely understood that rebalancing can actually be a source of return for the portfolio. Despite the fact that this observation dates back to 1982 [Fernholz and Shay] and has been successfully used to manage portfolios for nearly as long, it has come under considerable attack in the recent past by some academics and practitioners. The main arguments used by these detractors are:

1.       There is no return benefit, because the portfolio’s expected wealth does not increase.
2.      The return benefit exists, but is due to diversification, not rebalancing.
3.      The return benefit relies on mean-reversion.

These arguments may appear compelling at first glance, but all three are fundamentally flawed. This webcast will tell you why.

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Adrian Banner, Ph.D.
Chief executive officer and chief investment officer, INTECH
Dr. Banner was named chief executive officer in November 2012 and concurrently is the firm’s chief investment officer. He joined INTECH in August 2002 and has since been an integral part of the firm’s Princeton-based research team. Dr. Banner has extensive knowledge of INTECH’s trading systems, optimisation programs and research initiatives, both on an operational and theoretical basis. He has held various roles as part of the Princeton research team prior to being named CIO and subsequently CEO. Dr. Banner earned his Ph.D. in mathematics from Princeton University and his M.Sc. and B.Sc., also in mathematics, from the University of New South Wales, Australia. Dr. Banner has lectured on the stability of market capitalisation and low-volatility equity portfolios at a number of academic and professional conferences and has authored several scholarly papers on Stochastic Portfolio Theory.
David Schofield
President of INTECH’s international division – London
David is responsible for developing, implementing and managing the business effort for the firm outside of North America, including representing INTECH’s proprietary investment process to investors and consultants. Prior to joining INTECH in 2006, Mr. Schofield was responsible for developing Janus Capital International’s institutional activities in Europe, the UK and the Middle East, and had further responsibility for international consultant relations. Before joining Janus in 2001, Mr. Schofield spent 15 years in investment banking focusing on major institutional investors in Germany, France and the UK. During this time he worked for Salomon Brothers, Lehman Brothers and UBS in New York, London and Frankfurt. Mr. Schofield holds a Joint Honours Masters Degree in French and German from the University of Oxford. He is a published author and has 29 years of investment experience.

 

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Event : MATLAB for Risk Management and Fixed Income Analytics, 14 May 2015, 430pm

Join this free MathWorks seminar: MATLAB for Risk Management and Fixed Income Analytics 
ITC Grand Central, Mumbai, 14 May 2015 4:30 pm to 8:30 pm
Register
Financial organizations around the world develop computational platforms based on MATLAB to achieve diversified quantitative analytics goals. MATLAB forms the basis of risk management and analytics systems in banks, asset managers, regulators and insurers. Risk platforms are also benefitting from big data technology, in fraud and anomaly detection for example. Many organizations also use MATLAB for pricing and analyzing fixed income assets and portfolios.

Attend this seminar to learn all about:

Overview of “MATLAB for Financial services”
Best programming practices in MATLAB, to build scalable and efficient computational systems
Using MATLAB for developing Risk Management Models
Using MATLAB for fixed income analytics
Admission is free but seats are limited.
Reserve your seat now.
We look forward to welcoming you for this seminar on 14 May 2015.

Can The Credit Quality Of EU And Brazilian Sugar And Ethanol Producers’ Rebound In A Low Price Environment?

Can The Credit Quality Of EU And Brazilian Sugar And Ethanol Producers’ Rebound In A Low Price Environment?

Maxime Puget, Associate Director
Flavia Bedran, Director

Low market prices are pressuring cash flows but regulatory changes could also play a role in the sector credit trends. In this CreditMatters TV segment, Standard & Poor’s Associate Director Maxime Puget and Director Flavia Bedran look at credit prospects for our rated issuers

Calculation of the Term Structure of Liquidity Premium

Traditionally, liquidity has been defined as:

  • A Russian problem;
  • An Asian problem;
  • Someone else’s problem;
  • A broker’s problem;
  • Not something to worry about since it is guaranteed by the Central Bank; or,
  • All of the above.

Even the Bard has commented on liquidity with the rather pithy ‘put money in thy purse’!

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Apple Inc. Bonds: How Much for the World’s Number One Brand?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) ranks number 1 on the Forbes “most valuable brand” rankings. What does it cost, in terms of brand premium, to buy the bonds of Apple Inc.?  We answer that question in this note. We last reviewed Apple Inc. on January 20, 2014. In this note, we turn to the U.S. dollar bonds issued by Apple Inc. and compare its current default probabilities and credit spreads with those on all heavily traded corporate fixed-rate bonds on March 3, 2015. A total of 307 trades were reported on 14 fixed-rate bond issues of Apple Inc. with trading volume of $145.2 million on March 3. Apple Inc. was the 11th most actively traded corporate bond issuer on March 3. We use this information for three purposes: to evaluate the risk and return on the firm’s bonds, to evaluate the firm’s credit risk-adjusted dividend yield, and to reach a conclusion on investment grade status by the modern “Dodd-Frank” definition.

Conclusion:   The passion that equity and bond investors have shown for the common stock and bonds of the world’s number one brand is easy to understand.  Apple Inc. literally has the lowest default probabilities of its peer group at every maturity from 1 month to 10 years.  The firm is as close to the best bond rating as one is able to come in the 2015 environment.  If there is any bad news for bond investors in Apple Inc., it’s that bond prices have been bid up so strongly that the firm’s bonds offer just average value, as measured by the ratio of credit spread to default probability.   There were 148 heavily traded bond issues that offered better value by this criterion than the best Apple Inc. bond on March 3.  For investors with long memories, you will recall that the 1 year default probability of Apple Inc. rose above 3.50% in 1997-1998. Euphoria can be misleading at times.

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S&P: Asia-Pacific Sovereign Borrowing Projection In 2015

Why Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services projects little growth in Asia-Pacific sovereign borrowing this year? What accounted for these trends? Kim Eng Tan, Senior Director of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, explains. Watch

 

The Rieger Report: Should Municipal Bonds be “Core”?

The often misunderstood municipal bond market is not considered a ‘core’ asset class by many investors and institutions offering financial products to investors.  Certainly investment grade municipal bonds have some qualifications to be ‘core’ and the proposed Qualified Public Infrastructure Bond (QPIB) might help change the way we think about this important asset class.

– See more at: http://www.indexologyblog.com/2015/01/25/the-rieger-report-should-municipal-bonds-be-core/

Stressed Out: A Bond Market Risk Ranking Of Leading Financial Institutions

On March 13, 2014, we pointed out the many reasons why the Federal Reserve-mandated stress testing process will be a less accurate measure of financial institutions’ risk than the market’s price on those institutions’ promise to pay a dollar in the future.  The market place considers all scenarios, not just three as in the Fed’s CCAR stress tests.  The market place invests cold hard cash to price various financial institutions’ promises to pay.  In the stress testing process, those who prepare the stress tests are often in a conflict of interest position, since it normally serves them best financially if the CCAR results are prepared on the sunny side of the street.

In this note, we update our results from March 13, 2014 with the bond market assessments of financial institutions whose bonds were traded in the U.S. corporate bond market on Friday, January 23.  We use 1,281 trades on the bonds of 51 different legal entities in the financial services industry with underlying principal of $1.4 billion to rank those firms by riskiness.  We rank the institutions by credit spread and by spread to the U.S. Dollar Cost of Funds Index.

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Setting capital free: An interview with Tom McCabe of DBS Bank

With more than $330 billion in assets as of the start of 2015, DBS Bank is one of the largest banks in Southeast Asia. From its headquarters in Singapore, the bank oversees operations in 17 markets, serving more than 4.6 million customers, including 190,000 corporate and small- and midsize-business clients.

Recognizing pervasive changes in the needs of corporate clients, DBS launched a new program in early 2014 that builds the advisory skills of relationship managers (RMs)—enabling them to provide deeper supply-chain insights, help clients increase their free cash flow, and enhance innovation. Within six months, the initiative had trained more than 1,600 RMs, who collectively serve more than 30,000 clients.

The program’s architect is Tom McCabe, who served as managing director and global head of transaction banking until October 2014, when he became chief country officer for DBS’s US operations. McCabe spoke with us from his office in Singapore.

 

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Webinar : The Global Private Finance Opportunity: Searching the globe for the best relative value in private credit, Wednesday, 22 April 630pm IST

As investors continue to hunt for yield in this historically low interest rate environment, global private credit markets offer a potential solution for achieving both attractive returns and diversification. Attend on  Apr 22 2015 6:30 pm IST

Why Listen:

  • Learn about investing globally in private credit
  • Insights into private credit fundamentals worldwide
  • Learn how private credit is originated
  • Key thoughts and considerations around portfolio construction and diversification in North America, Europe, Australia/New Zealand and developed Asia
Register now >>
Eric Lloyd, head of global private finance
Eric Lloyd is Babson’s head of global private finance. His responsibilities include managing all aspects of the firm’s global private finance enterprise and participating on multiple investment committees. Eric has 25 years of industry experience that has encompassed investment banking, leveraged finance and risk management. Prior to joining the firm in 2013, Eric served as head of market and institutional risk for Wells Fargo and was a member of the board of directors of Wells Fargo Securities. Before the acquisition of Wachovia, Eric worked in Wachovia’s global markets investment banking (GMIB) division and served on the division’s operating committee where he oversaw capital deployment and allocation across Wachovia’s GMIB business. Prior to the operating committee, Eric was head of Wachovia’s leveraged finance group where he was responsible for the origination, structure, due diligence, execution, and distribution and trading of Wachovia’s core leveraged credit products, including syndicated bank loans, bridge loans and high yield debt. Eric holds a BSc in finance from the University of Virginia, McIntire School of Commerce.
Terry Harris, head of portfolio management, global private finance
Terry Harris is a member of Babson’s global private finance group and the group’s investment committees. He is responsible for supervising investment and portfolio management. Terry has 24 years of experience that has encompassed investing senior and mezzanine debt and equity in middle market companies operating in commercial and industrial as well as specialised industries. Prior to joining the firm in 2013, Terry was a partner of Tower Three Partners, and he served as chief investment officer of Firstlight Financial Corporation. Before Firstlight, he was chief risk officer for GE Capital’s global telecom, media & technology finance group. He also held senior credit positions at Bank of America Commercial Finance and Transamerica Commercial Finance. Terry holds a BSc and an MBA from Florida State University, and is a Certified Public Accountant (inactive).

Register now for the webcast >>
About Babson Capital Management
Babson Capital Management LLC (Babson) is a leading global asset management firm with over $212bn in assets under management as of 31 December 2014. Through proprietary research, analysis and a focus on investment fundamentals, the firm and its global affiliates develop products and strategies that leverage its broad expertise in global fixed income, structured products, middle market finance, commercial real estate, alternatives and equities. A member of the MassMutual Financial Group, Babson maintains a strong global footprint, with operations on four continents and clients in over 20 countries. Learn more atwww.babsoncapital.com.

The Absolute Return Letter, April 2015 : The ‘Perfect Storm’

 

This month’s Absolute Return Letter is about the highly unusual set of circumstances which have underpinned the equity bull market of the last 35 years. Not one of the factors we identify did exceptionally well – they all did and, between them, they created the perfect breeding ground for exceptional equity performance. So far so good.
Unfortunately a reality check is required as it is exceedingly unlikely that those circumstances will be repeated in our lifetime. We should prepare for more modest returns ahead.

Enjoy the read.

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The Rieger Report: Boring is good! Municipal Bonds Return 9.26% in 2014

The Rieger Report: Boring is good! Municipal Bonds Return 9.26% in 2014

The municipal bond market steadily marched upward in 2014 and the S&P Municipal Bond Index ended up 9.26%.  The main ‘drama’ during the year came from the Detroit bankruptcy proceedings and wild swings of prices of bonds issued by Puerto Rico. Overall, low new issue supply and relatively attractive tax-free yields certainly helped keep the supply demand equilibrium to the demand side. Investment grade municipal bonds tracked in the S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index returned 8.92%.  In comparison, the S&P U.S. Issued Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index recorded a 7.71% return. The S&P Municipal Bond High Yield Index returned it’s third highest return in 16 years ending up 14.6%.  Junk corporate bonds tracked in the S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index returned 2.65%.  The tailwind for high yield municipal bonds was fueled by rebounds in both the Puerto Rico bond market and the tobacco settlement bond sector.  The S&P Municipal Bond Puerto Rico General Obligation Index was up 15.27% and the S&P Municipal Bond Tobacco Index returned 16.15%. Illinois wrestled with its pension obligations all year making headlines but it is general obligation bonds from New Jersey that underperformed the overall market.  The S&P Municipal Bond New Jersey General Obligation Index returned 3.7% significantly behind general obligations of other large issuers such as California (10.59%) , Illinois (9.63%) and New York (6%). Not a bad year for municipal bonds.  Boring is good.

Basel III Counterparty Credit Metrics

 Basel III Counterparty Credit Metrics

Click here for a *.pdf version of this document.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
An important element of Basel III is the definition of minimum capital adequacy requirements for counterparty credit exposures (derivative instruments, long settlement transactions, securities financing transactions, and counterparty master agreements where the counterparty to the transaction is a credit-risky entity) held by banks.

Basel III defines two forms of capital adequacy requirements for counterparty credit exposures. The first form specifies the minimum capital required to cover potential future losses from counterparty defaults in terms of the probability of counterparty default (PD), the loss rate given default (LGD) on a defaulted exposure, the exposure at default (EAD) of the exposure, and the effective maturity (M) of the exposure. The second form specifies the minimum capital required to cover potential future losses from future changes in the credit quality of the counterparty that result in changes in the credit spreads for the counterparty’s credit exposures.

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Webinar : Understanding the Market Impact of News Sentiment Signals: From High-Frequency Event-Driven Signals to Low-Frequency Macro-Sentiment Indicators, 15th April, 730pm IST

Understanding the Market Impact of News Sentiment Signals: From High-Frequency Event-Driven Signals to Low-Frequency Macro-Sentiment Indicators

Date: 15 April 2015, Wednesday
Time: 3.00PM – 4.00PM BST
Presenter: Elijah DePalma, Thomson Reuters

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About the webinar:

Financial markets are becoming increasingly efficient at incorporating news information into security market prices.

For scheduled economic news releases the latencies of market reactions are on the order of milliseconds and microseconds. Using a record of microsecond, time-stamped tick data from Thomson Reuters Tick History, we take a granular look at the market impact of US economic news surprises on trading and market by price level activity surrounding liquid index futures contracts.

For unscheduled news events, market reactions can be delayed by seconds or minutes. Thomson Reuters News Analytics (TRNA) is a natural language processing system that provides real-time linguistic and sentiment analytics on financial news, and TRNA can be used as an HFT event detection system to identify market moving news events. In this study we use TRNA over US and UK markets to identify news events which were followed by abnormal price returns, volatilities, and trading volumes at the one-second level. In addition, TRNA is expanding to include native Japanese natural language processing capabilities and using these capabilities, we identify Japanese language news events which significantly impacted JP equity markets at the one-second level.

We can also use TRNA to construct market-wide, macro-sentiment indices by aggregating news sentiment scores over broad universes of companies or asset classes.  We present recent research which demonstrates the significant, macro-behavioral influence of market sentiment on the future performance of market anomalies and fundamental style factors over monthly time horizons.

Speaker Profile:

Elijah DePalma is currently working in the most exciting business at Thomson Reuters – Machine Readable News and News Analytics – generating alpha over mid- to long-term trading horizons utilizing innovative quant signals from financial newswires and social media sources. He started his career with Thomson Reuters in Feb 2012, initially providing research support for Thomson Reuters MarketPsych Indices – a compelling product which provides macro-level, financial insights based on principles of modern psychology and behavioral finance. Prior to coming to Thomson Reuters, he completed a PhD in Applied Statistics from University of California, Riverside.

Registration link: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8526128097500516097

 

CORRELATION AND CASUALITY BETWEEN GLOBAL YIELDS

The combination of increased global financial integration and the divergent monetary policy paths of major central banks create a new pattern for the U.S. benchmark yields with higher influence coming from Germany.

Contrary to previous predictions of normalization, the yield on the U.S. benchmark 10-year bond remains stubbornly low despite fundamental and textbook reasons for the yield to move higher. I think that’s partly because very loose monetary conditions in the Eurozone, reinforced by the European Central Banks’ (ECB) unconventional measures to counter deflation risks, is and will continue to increasingly play a larger role in determining both global financial conditions, including U.S. long yields than in previous periods.

 

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